Where Did All The German-Americans Come From?

Although more Americans claim to have German ancestry than any other point of origin, we are not seeing this reflected in the various "ancestral" products from DNA testing companies. The map below shows the largest claimed ancestry in US counties in the 2000 census. Unfortunately for future genealogists, that data was not collected in 2010. 

Almost 50 million Americans claimed German ancestry. They were the largest ancestral grouping in the counties colored in baby blue above. The second largest group overall was African-Americans with about 40 million. 

In spite of this large Germanic presence, this grouping is hard to identify in test reports from Ancestry Composition (23andMe), DNAAncestry and now from myOrigins (FTDNA).

The individual whose test results and ancestral predictions are described below descends from 5 (of 8) great-grandparents who immigrated from Germany/Prussia to the Chicago area in the last half of the 19th century. Their points of origin were were in Northern Germany/Prussia from Ostfriesland in the west near The Netherlands to Westpreussen near Danzig. 

Note that the Germanic ancestry is not very prominently represented in any of them. DNAAncestry combines France and Germany into a category called Europe West.

DNAAncestry

Even if this segment is combined with Europe East, the two do not add up the even half of the expected 62.5%. However, Ancestry did note that the actual component for Europe West could range from 0% to 40% and that the component for Europe East could range from 3% to 20%. However, even if the most generous numbers from each range were taken, this would only begin to approach the expected amount.

Ancestry Composition (23andMe), even at its "Speculative" setting does not allocate much specifically to German and Eastern European. Even if all the Non specific European and Northern European were added, it would still be short of the amount suggested by paper trails. 

Ancestry Composition

With myOrigins (FTDNA in Beta) the predicted origins are also shown to be 78% from the British Isles rather than the continent.

myOrigins

I have noted with other individuals in my extended family that the predicted origins seem to overemphasize the Isles at the expense of the areas from whence German-Americans came. This seems to be true whether they originated from the Palatine or from more northern regions. What has been the experience with those in your families?

myOrigins Predicts Locations of Ancestors of Family of 4

Usually when I see reviews or comments about the various ancestry location predictors, the focus is on one person -- usually the author. Rarely do we look at whole families. Below are the myOrigins predictions for a family of 4. Such an analysis offers more constraints than those that look only at one person at a time. However, that narrower focus may be a good place to start.

Most of you probably know that myOrigins is a new feature being rolled out by FTDNA to replace its now primitive Population Finder. It offers many more than the previous 4 possible populations of origin. It also gives users the chance to review the predicted ancestral distribution for those who are Family Finder matches on their atDNA.

This kind of prediction is far from settled science. There is nothing wrong with the genetic analysis of reputable labs. However, it is easy for sensation seekers to make unsupportable claims. The problems are that we often are not told when it was that our ancestors were supposed to have lived in the predicted locations and also that our ancestors were quite mobile -- at least in certain periods. For example Geno 2.0 tries to predict where our ancestors may have been thousands of years ago. Other tests aim just a few hundred years back in time. Much as we would love to know in which postal zone our ancestors lived in during a particular decade, DNA analysis alone is far from unlocking such pinpoint information.

If the DNA is trying to place us even 15 to 20 generations back in time, none of us have any clue who all or even most of our ancestors might have been. The most diligent among us may have information about a small percentage of our forebears that far back.

This is not to say that information from tests like myOrigins is not fascinating and sometimes informative. However, we need to resist the temptation to swallow it whole. We need to digest it carefully and need to correlate it with information from other sources.

In examining the family of four below, it is important to remember that we are examining a known family unit. These are not 4 genetically independent individuals. The general findings for each parent are not inconsistent with what is known about their ancestral origins from other sources. This level of analysis is at best two dimensional. It begins to get more interesting when each family member is compared with each other family member. 

If we can assume that the predicted information about the parents are generally in a range close to the truth, the predicted information for the children begin to raise some questions. We all know that atDNA is random and that two siblings generally inherit about 50% of the same segment. That could account for some of the variation between the daughter and the son. 

The values for each child would be expected to be within or near the ranges established by the two parents. If the assumption made in the last sentence is accepted, most of the values for the daughter are not unexpected although her European Coastal Islands component is more than 10% higher than that for either parent. Other than the small Trans-Ural Peneplain result, nothing else about the daughter's results seem to stand out on the face of them.

The son is a different matter. His much lower European Coastal Island component than any other family member and his European Northlands component of more double any other family member strain credibility that they resulted from just random atDNA inheritance in only a single. All this might be statistically possible but it strains credibility. 

myOrigins for a family of 4

	Father	Mother	Daughter	Son
European Coastal Islands	58%	67%	76%	35%
European Northlands	15%	18%	19%	45%
European Coastal Plain		13%		12%
North Mediterranean Basin	22%	2%	2%	6%
North Circupolar	5%
North African Coastlands				2%
Trans-Ural Peneplain			4%

It is not my intention to single out myOrigins for a greater levels of scrutiny than we apply to other similar tests. We should be applying them to all such test results. As drawn to these predictions as we are, do we believe they are as ready for prime time as genetic genealogical tools in the way that other DNA tests have become?

You may want to tune in to Elise Friedman's webinar on Monday at high noon Houston time for more details about the launch of this new product.

myOrigins Is In Secret Beta

Family Tree DNA's successor to Population Finder, myOrigins is now in secret beta. This is not a review of the product. That will come after I have time to complete a more thorough test drive. At first glance it has many interesting features. 

If you do have access to the product during the beta test, I encourage you to test it thoroughly and report any bugs or difficulties, along with any other comments, directly back to the design team promptly. All of us will benefit if this product can be made better.