Extend your 37 marker yDNA test to ??

On Facebook and in other genetic genealogy forums the question is often asked if it would be useful to extend a yDNA test. The conventional wisdom seems to be that mismatches occur in a symmetrical manner. According to that scenario, two men who mismatch by zero or 1 on a 12 marker test are likely to have 1 or 2 mismatches over 25 markers. If the test were to be extended to 37 markers, 2 or 3 mismatches might be expected. If the test were extended to 67 markers, 3 or 4 mismatches might be expected. Finally, if the tests were upgraded to 111 markers, one might expect to find 5 to 7 mismatches. The underlying assumption is that mismatches occur in a predictable manner.

However, DNA is not inherited in such an orderly way. At least we have yet to discover laws of inheritance that guide us to what to expect. RANDOM seems to be the controlling factor. If two men have 3 mismatches over 111 markers, it is possible that all 3 of them will occur in the first 12 markers. It is also possible that all three will occur between markers 99 and 111. Neither of these distributions is likely, but they are both possible.   

I have a 6th cousin -- once removed with whom I mismatch on ySTR marker #1 and also on marker #18. I have no other mismatches with him on markers #19 through #111. This cousin is the fourth man listed below in my baker's dozen of my matches over 111 markers. The two cousins listed just above him, are 110/111 matches. One is a mismatch on the 79th marker and the other is a mismatch on marker 100. Both are one generation closer to me than the cousin with whom I am a 109/111 match. Another 6th cousin -- once removed is an 11/12, 24/25, 34/37, 63/67 and 105/111 match.  

Y-DNA  12	Y-DNA 25	Y-DNA   37	Y-DNA 67	Y-DNA 111
0	0	1	2	6
0	0	0	0	1
0	0	0	0	1
1	2	2	2	2
1	1	2	4	7
0	0	2	2	3
0	0	1	1	2
1	1	1	2	6
1	1	2	3	9
1	1	2	3	10
1	1	3	4	6
1	1	2	4	7
1	1	2	5	10

Random reigns! The results from the first 12, 25 or 37 STR markers are not indicators of what the next 30 or 74 STRs may tell us. You won't know unless you test. 

Of course you may find out all you need to know to answer your genealogical question(s) without testing 111 markers.

FTDNA End of Summer Sale

I'm happy to pass along this notice which just appeared in my email box because we all benefit when more people are tested and the databases of potential matches grow bigger:

Dear Beloved Bloggers, We hope you've had a great summer!  As the season draws to a close, join us for one last celebration with our End of Summer Y-DNA Sale!  Customers can order a Y-DNA test and join the world's largest Y-DNA database today.  All Y-DNA tests and upgrades have been marked down for significant savings! Time is limited.  The sale ends 9/3/2014. As an added bonus, Big Y is also on sale for just $495.  Big Y coupons acquired during the Father's Day Sale can be used on Big Y orders placed during the End of Summer Sale.  With Big Y, 340,000 years of Y-DNA ancestry is just a test away!

Standard Tests Regular Price Sale Price Y-37 $169 $129 Y-67 $268 $199 Y-111 $367 $279 Big Y $595 $495   Upgrades Regular Price Sale Price Y-12 -> Y-37 $99 $70 Y-12 -> Y-67 $189 $148 Y-12 -> Y-111 $339 $239 Y-25 -> Y-37 $49 $35 Y-25 -> Y-67 $148 $114 Y-25 -> Y-111 $249 $209 Y-37 -> Y-67 $99 $79 Y-37 -> Y-111 $220 $179 Y-67 -> Y-111 $129 $109

Ancestry "Retires" Several Products

This somewhat abbreviated post is being sent to you from Burbank where I attended a very successful DNA Day yesterday and will begin Jamboree this morning.

Ancestry prunes its product line

Ancestry has announced several decisions to trim its sails that are not pleasing to most family historians. Most of these are to take effect in early September. Two of them which will most affect me are:

1.       The MyFamily.com websites, which many of us use to stay connected with others who are interested in researching and documenting branches of our family trees, will be closing September 5^th.

2.       The company is also getting out of the yDNA and the mtDNA testing business.

Neither of these decisions is too surprising. However, taken together, do they indicate some bigger strategy is being implemented? Both of these two products have become orphaned over the years. They are soon to be removed from life support. Other products to be "retired" are MyCanvas, Genealogy.com and Mundia.

MyFamily.com

Most MyFamily customers balked at migrating from version 1.0 to “the next generation of myfamily.com” as Ancestry call its version 2.0. Facebook did the rest. These sites which were early social media sites for family members when they were first offered about 15 years ago have gradually lost the vitality they once enjoyed. Many of us would not have been able to make the progress we have achieved with our family histories without MyFamily or some vehicle like it. Users have been notified that we have until September 5^th to download content from our sites.

yDNA and mtDNA testing (now called LegacyDNA)

Many of us think Ancestry has been out of the yDNA &mtDNA testing business for years. However, the company has continued to claim that was not the case even after it became clear in 2012 that their heart and capital investments were all going into atDNA testing. The biggest effect of the recent announcement is to end support for database the test results.

Ancestry is a business

For more information on how these produces will be phased out, Ancestry has established links to aid current customers. It remains to be seen whether these announcements signal a change in Ancestry's basic business plan. However it is a reminder that Ancestry is a business that is answerable only to its investors -- particularly since the corporation was taken private almost three years ago. This is a reminder that Ancestry is a for-profit business and that reality takes precedence over more altruistic goals of collecting and preserving genealogically relevant information.